Vermont's 2026 election: an analysis of the results
What stood out
Scott fell much further than other Republicans
Every Republican running statewide lost ground from 2024, but Scott lost far more. The other Republicans dropped by 5 to 12 points, and the U.S. House race barely moved. In 2024 Scott ran ahead of the other Republicans on the ballot. This year he ran ahead, so about one voter in five still chose Scott and Democrats for the other offices.
Republican candidate's share of the vote, 2024 and 2026
Where Scott lost ground
Biggest and smallest changes (towns with 400+ votes)
Education, income, and density
Each town by college share and income per person, colored by who won it
Janoo's share, with towns grouped by how far education outpaces income
Janoo's gain over the 2024 Democrat
School closures, consolidation, and taxes
Towns grouped by their schools
Comparing otherwise similar towns
Extra points of shift toward Janoo for towns with each feature, compared with towns that match on 2024 vote, college share, income, density, age, and second homes. Ranges are 95% confidence intervals; gray means no clear difference.
Towns with a closure voted or proposed
Sources and notes
Democratic share for governor, 2016–2026
Towns with more college graduates have voted more Democratic for governor since before Scott took office. That gap narrowed from 2018 through 2024 as Scott won over Democrats everywhere, and in 2026 it returned to about where it was in 2016. In the 2024 presidential race the gap was wider still. Towns are split into five groups with equal numbers of voters.
Governor vs. Legislature
House districts by Scott's share, colored by who won the seats
Legislative candidates who ran ahead of or behind expectations
Each candidate in a contested race is compared with what a typical candidate of the same party would be expected to get in that district. The expectation is based on how the district voted in the six statewide and federal races other than governor, whether the candidate was an incumbent, and how many candidates ran. The difference, in percentage points, is like a wins above replacement (WAR) score: positive means the candidate ran ahead of their party's usual showing. Races with an independent candidate, or with more Democrats or Republicans than seats, are left out because the comparison doesn't work for them.
How this is calculated
2024 winners who lost
"% of voters" is the share of voters who voted for the candidate. In districts with two or three seats each voter can choose more than one candidate, so a candidate can get a majority of voters and still finish out of the running.
Closest House races
Method and data notes
Results. The Vermont Secretary of State's unofficial election-night files (, towns). SOS reports every race by town and House district, so the statewide races are added up exactly over each legislative district. Royalton, Stannard, and Washington had not reported. Races in districts that include those towns are flagged incomplete. Marlboro's governor return shows Scott at 0 votes and 129 "other write-in" votes, while the town's other races look normal. That looks like a reporting error, so Marlboro is left out of every governor comparison. 2024 results come from the SOS official 2024 files. Governor results from 2016 to 2022 come from the vt-needle baseline (OpenElections and the Vermont Election Archive).
Partisan lean. For each town or district, the Republican share of the vote for Republican vs. Democratic or Progressive candidates in the races for Lt. Governor, Treasurer, Secretary of State, Auditor, Attorney General, and U.S. House, added together. This is the "other Republicans" and "other Democrats" benchmark used throughout. "Scott vs. other Republicans" is Scott's share of the Scott–Janoo vote minus that number. Shares labeled "two-candidate" leave out minor candidates.
Above expected (WAR). For each contested Democratic, Progressive, or Republican legislative candidate, share = votes ÷ voters in the district. SOS's ballot count counts each seat, so it is divided by the number of seats. A regression weighted by district size predicts share from the party's partisan lean in the district, party, incumbency (won the same chamber in 2024, matched by name), and independents in the race. House one-seat and multi-seat races are modeled separately, because in multi-seat races voters choose several candidates; the multi-seat model also accounts for how many candidates each party ran. The Senate, with fewer races, uses one model with a multi-seat indicator. The score is actual minus predicted. House: n=, R²=. Senate: n=, R²=. Treat differences under about 3 points as noise.
Demographics. 2020–2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates for county subdivisions (Census table-based summary files) and land area from the 2024 Census Gazetteer. These are town-level averages. A pattern across towns does not show how individual voters behaved. There was no 2026 exit poll for Vermont. In the Vermont Public / Vermont State University poll (fielded Sept. 10–21, 732 likely voters), Janoo led 45–38 among likely voters with a bachelor's degree or more and Scott led 51–16 among those with high school or less, which fits the town pattern here.
Income. Income is ACS per-capita income: total income in the town divided by all residents. It was chosen over median household income, which runs high in commuter towns with two-earner families (Milton $119k, Fairfax $129k ± $29k) and low where many people live alone or with roommates. It was also chosen over median earnings per worker, which counts part-time student jobs and puts Burlington at $26k. Per-capita income counts children, so towns with many families look somewhat poorer. All three measures give the same result: at the same education level, Janoo did better, gained more, and ran closer to the other Democrats in lower-income towns.
Holding other measures fixed. Estimated change, in percentage points, between towns that differ in one measure and match on the others (college share, density, income per person, median age, second homes). Ranges are 95% confidence intervals; gray means no clear difference.
Quintiles. Towns are ranked and split into five groups with equal shares of the 2026 governor vote. Density tiers: rural <50 people per sq mi, small town 50–200, suburban or large town 200–1,000, urban 1,000+.