Who will win Vermont governor?

Waiting for results

Chance of winning

JanooScott

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Estimated margin

JanooScott

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Vote counted

Counted margin

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Est. total votes

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Towns reporting

0 / 246

Forecast over time

By county

Compared with past races

Shift in margin

Model settings

Prior margin (R−D, pts) Prior margin SD (pts) Expected total votes Third-party share

Needle jitter

How this works

Each town starts from how it voted relative to the state in the 2016–2022 governor races. As towns report, the gap between actual and expected results gives a statewide swing and county swings, which are applied to the towns still out. Turnout is handled the same way. The chance of winning is the share of 2,000 simulations each candidate wins. The needles jitter within the model’s uncertainty.

Results: Vermont Secretary of State (unofficial). History: OpenElections and the Vermont Election Archive. Source